We’ve been predicting the Oscars for Mag the Weekly for quite a few years and it has been quite a time-consuming endeavour. There were hits and misses (mostly hits) in all these years. We don’t believe in simply picking winners based on industry trends, instead we watch as many movies as possible – even those we’ve seen during the year.

This year though, simply watching movies isn’t going to be enough. The Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences have inducted 774 members to its ranks. This addition – by far the most extensive – adds racial, gender and international diversity to the list. The new members will either shake things up or decide to play it by the book, favouring time-honoured messages (like Three Billboards) in favour of supporting trendier cinema (Get Out). How that will play out, only time will tell.

As things stand by our estimation, Best Picture may go to Three Billboards because of its stronger topic of rape, justice and redemption. Gary Oldman will win the Oscar in his second nomination (Jean Dujardin won for The Artist last time). Frances McDormand may win her second award after Fargo – though, Sally Hawkins may pull an upset here.

Academy voters may support Get Out in the Original Screenplay category – despite the fact that the film became a bit commercial in its last thirty minutes. James Ivory will win in Adapted Screenplay category, because in a career spanning six decades he’s only managed four nominations so far (at 89, he is the second oldest person to be nominated by the Academy).

The Documentary category may prove to be interesting. Faces Places has the favour at the moment, while the gut-wrenching Last Men in Aleppo has the most soul. Icarus may prove to be a slight upset here.

On the technical side, Roger Deakins will finally win his elusive Best Cinematography trophy for Blade Runner 2049. Dunkirk – the hot favourite – and Baby Driver, which is technically trendier, will slug it out in Edit, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing – three categories that may either go entirely our way, or totally against our predictions. (Both titles are excellent, and will confuse voters I guess).

The same dilemma is present in the Best Song category, where both headlining nominees – writers of This Is Me (The Greatest Showman) and Remember Me (Coco) – are already past winners. (One had won for Frozen, the other for La La Land). As far as personal preference is concerned, This Is Me, which has a stronger message of accepting one’s own individuality, will get my vote – even if the industry may give the award to Coco.

Below, we compile our industry-knowledge with our own instincts, breaking down the top nominees by their chances of winning.

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 60%
The Shape of Water – 40%

Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water – 90%
Others – 10%

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour – 90%
Others – 10%

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 70%
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water – 30%

Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 80%
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 20%

Supporting Actress
Allison Janney, I, Tonya – 90%
Others – 10%

Screenplay – Original
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 60%
Get Out – 40%

Screenplay – Adapted
James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name – 90%
Others – 10%

Coco – 70%
The Breadwinner – 20%
Loving Vincent – 10%

A Fantastic Woman – 80%
The Square – 20%

Last Men in Aleppo – 55%
Faces Places – 45%

Blade Runner 2049 – 90%
Others – 10%

Dunkirk – 60%
Baby Driver – 40%

Sound Edit
Dunkirk – 55%
Baby Driver – 45%

Sound Mix
Baby Driver – 55%
Dunkirk – 45%

Production Design
The Shape of Water – 60%
Blade Runner 2049 – 40%

Make-up and Hair
Darkest Hour – 80%
Wonder – 20%

Costume Design
Phantom Thread – 70%
The Shape of Water – 30%

Visual Effects
War for the Planet of the Apes – 60%
Blade Runner 2049 – 40%

The Shape of Water – 70%
Phantom Thread – 30%

This is Me, The Greatest Showman – 60%
Remember Me, Coco – 40%